The prognostic role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in obesity.

Aim: Poor cardiorespiratory fitness has been suggested to increase the risk of chronic diseases in obesity. We investigated the ability of key variables from cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) to predict all-cause mortality in an obese cohort.

Methods: The sample included 469 participants of both sexes (mean age 40 ± 13 years) who underwent a CPET for clinical reasons between 1 March 2009 and 1 December 2023. All-cause mortality was the prognostic endpoint. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to establish optimal cut-points for CPET variables. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the association between CPET variables and all-cause mortality.

Results: There were 46 deaths during a mean follow-up period of 69 ± 48 months, resulting in an annual mortality rate of 2%. Despite the sample being made up of mostly women (70%), there were more deaths in men (18 vs. 6%, p < 0.001).The optimal thresholds for discrimination of survival were as follows: (a) peak oxygen uptake (pVO) ≤16 mL/kg/min; (b) minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (V/VCO) slope ≥31; (c) ventilatory power ≤5.8 mmHg; and (d) circulatory power ≤2980 mmHg/mL O/min. Kaplan-Meier survival plots revealed a significant positive association between lower pVO, circulatory power and ventilatory power values and survival (log-rank, p < 0.001) and higher mortality for men than women. Adjusted Cox regression models showed that a pVO ≤16 mL/kg/min had a 20-fold higher risk of mortality when compared with >16 mL/kg/min.

Conclusion: Given the strong association of VO, ventilatory efficiency, circulatory and ventilatory power with all-cause mortality, our findings support the notion that poorer cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with obesity.