Contrast-enhanced computed tomography-based radiomics nomogram for predicting HER2 status in urothelial bladder carcinoma.

Objective: To evaluate the performance of a clinical-radiomics model based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) in assessing human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status in urothelial bladder carcinoma (UBC).

Methods: From January 2022 to December 2023, 124 patients with UBC were classified into the training (n=100) and test (n=24) sets. CE-CT scans were performed on the patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify independent predictors of HER2 status in patients with UBC. We employed eight machine learning algorithms to establish radiomic models. A clinical-radiomics model was developed by integrating radiomic signatures and clinical features. Receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were generated to evaluate and validate the predictive capabilities of the models.

Results: Among the eight classifiers, the random forest radiomics model based on CE-CT demonstrated the highest efficacy in predicting HER2 status, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.880 (95% CI: 0.813-0.946) and 0.814 (95% CI: 0.642-0.986) in the training and test sets, respectively. In the training set, the clinical-radiomics model achieved an AUC of 0.935, an accuracy of 0.870, a sensitivity of 0.881, and a specificity of 0.854. In the test set, the clinical-radiomics model achieved an AUC of 0.857, an accuracy of 0.760, a sensitivity of 0.643, and a specificity of 0.900. DCA analysis indicated that the clinical-radiomics model provided good clinical benefit.

Conclusion: The radiomics nomogram demonstrates good diagnostic performance in predicting HER2 expression in patients with UBC.