Trends in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2021: A modelling study.

Introduction: We aimed to assess: (i) trends in alcohol-specific - that is, fully attributable - morbidity and mortality in the German adult population aged 15-69 between 2000 and 2021; and (ii) changes in alcohol-attributable disease burden - that is, fully and partially alcohol-attributable categories - for 2006, 2012, 2018 and 2021.

Methods: Morbidity data was pulled from hospitalisation and rehabilitation statistics and mortality data was pulled from the causes of death registry. Alcohol use, adjusted for unrecorded consumption, was estimated using the Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse and triangulated with per capita consumption from annual sales data. For major disease categories, alcohol-attributable fractions were estimated for males and females by age groups (15-29, 30-49, 50-69 years) using the comparative risk assessment methodology.

Results: For males and females, the age-standardised rate of alcohol-specific morbidity peaked in 2012 and decreased thereafter showing a steep decline from 2019 to 2021. The rates of alcohol-specific mortality decreased constantly from 2000 to 2019 but increased from 2019 to 2021. Compared to 2006 the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates in males and females were lower in 2021. For both sexes, the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates and the proportions of morbidity/mortality rates relative to all-cause morbidity/mortality decreased between 2006 and 2021.

Discussion: The declines in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality are in line with decreases in consumption and signal that the importance of alcohol in health service utilisation and mortality has weakened. Sex ratios in morbidity and mortality do not indicate a strong converging trend.