A conditional multi-label model to improve prediction of a rare outcome: An illustration predicting autism diagnosis.

Objective: This study aimed to develop a novel approach using routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) data to improve the prediction of a rare event. We illustrated this using an example of improving early prediction of an autism diagnosis, given its low prevalence, by leveraging correlations between autism and other neurodevelopmental conditions (NDCs).

Methods: To achieve this, we introduced a conditional multi-label model by merging conditional learning and multi-label methodologies. The conditional learning approach breaks a hard task into more manageable pieces in each stage, and the multi-label approach utilizes information from related neurodevelopmental conditions to learn predictive latent features. The study involved forecasting autism diagnosis by age 5.5 years, utilizing data from the first 18 months of life, and the analysis of feature importance correlations to explore the alignment within the feature space across different conditions.

Results: Upon analysis of health records from 18,156 children, we are able to generate a model that predicts a future autism diagnosis with moderate performance (AUROC=0.76). The proposed conditional multi-label method significantly improves predictive performance with an AUROC of 0.80 (p < 0.001). Further examination shows that both the conditional and multi-label approach alone provided marginal lift to the model performance compared to a one-stage one-label approach. We also demonstrated the generalizability and applicability of this method using simulated data with high correlation between feature vectors for different labels.

Conclusion: Our findings underscore the effectiveness of the developed conditional multi-label model for early prediction of an autism diagnosis. The study introduces a versatile strategy applicable to prediction tasks involving limited target populations but sharing underlying features or etiology among related groups.