Analysis of risk factors and development of a nomogram prediction model for renal tubular acidosis in primary Sjogren syndrome patients.

Objective: To investigate the risk factors of renal tubular acidosis (RTA) in patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) and create a personalized nomogram for predicting pSS-RTA patients.

Method: Data from 99 pSS patients who underwent inpatient treatment at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2024 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Bootstrap resampling technique, single-factor, and multi-factor logistic regression analyses were used to explore the risk factors for pSS-RTA. A nomogram was developed based on the results of the multivariate logistic model. The model was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curve, C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. In addition, we graded the severity of pSS-RTA patients and used univariate analysis to assess the relationship between pSS-RTA severity and risk factors.

Results: A multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that concurrent thyroid disease, long symptom duration, subjective dry mouth, and positive RF were independent risk factors for pSS-RTA patients. Based on them, a personalized nomogram predictive model was established. With a p-value of 0.657 from the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the model demonstrated a good fit. The AUC values in the training and validation groups were 0.912 and 0.896, indicating a strong discriminative power of the nomogram. The calibration curves for the training and validation groups closely followed the diagonal line with a slope of 1, confirming the model's reliable predictive ability. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram model had a net benefit in predicting pSS-RTA, emphasizing its clinical value.This study did not find an association between the severity of pSS-RTA and risk factors.

Discussion: We developed a nomogram to predict RTA occurrence in pSS patients, and it is believed to provide a foundation for early identification and intervention for high-risk pSS patients.