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Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning. | LitMetric

Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning.

Parasit Vectors

The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

Published: August 2024

AI Article Synopsis

  • Culicoides biting midges are key vectors for important veterinary viruses like bluetongue and African horse sickness, and their distribution is impacted by climate and environmental changes.
  • This study aimed to model the distribution of two primary Culicoides species using random forest machine learning, analyzing various climate and anthropological factors in South Africa where these diseases are common.
  • The random forest models successfully explained significant variance in Culicoides populations, with cattle density and water vapor pressure identified as the most critical predictors for the two species, outperforming traditional interpolation maps in predictive accuracy.

Article Abstract

Background: Culicoides biting midges exhibit a global spatial distribution and are the main vectors of several viruses of veterinary importance, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). Many environmental and anthropological factors contribute to their ability to live in a variety of habitats, which have the potential to change over the years as the climate changes. Therefore, as new habitats emerge, the risk for new introductions of these diseases of interest to occur increases. The aim of this study was to model distributions for two primary vectors for BT and AHS (Culicoides imicola and Culicoides bolitinos) using random forest (RF) machine learning and explore the relative importance of environmental and anthropological factors in a region of South Africa with frequent AHS and BT outbreaks.

Methods: Culicoides capture data were collected between 1996 and 2022 across 171 different capture locations in the Western Cape. Predictor variables included climate-related variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity), environment-related variables (normalised difference vegetation index-NDVI, soil moisture) and farm-related variables (livestock densities). Random forest (RF) models were developed to explore the spatial distributions of C. imicola, C. bolitinos and a merged species map, where both competent vectors were combined. The maps were then compared to interpolation maps using the same capture data as well as historical locations of BT and AHS outbreaks.

Results: Overall, the RF models performed well with 75.02%, 61.6% and 74.01% variance explained for C. imicola, C. bolitinos and merged species models respectively. Cattle density was the most important predictor for C. imicola and water vapour pressure the most important for C. bolitinos. Compared to interpolation maps, the RF models had higher predictive power throughout most of the year when species were modelled individually; however, when merged, the interpolation maps performed better in all seasons except winter. Finally, midge densities did not show any conclusive correlation with BT or AHS outbreaks.

Conclusion: This study yielded novel insight into the spatial abundance and drivers of abundance of competent vectors of BT and AHS. It also provided valuable data to inform mathematical models exploring disease outbreaks so that Culicoides-transmitted diseases in South Africa can be further analysed.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11340078PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-024-06446-8DOI Listing

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