Short- and long-term prognostic performance of exercise ECG and myocardial perfusion SPECT.

Background: Myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) and exercise electrocardiography (Ex-ECG) results are of prognostic importance for short-term follow up duration. However, the value of MPS or Ex-ECG findings for long-term risk assessment is less evident as underlying risk factors for ischemic heart disease (IHD) gain in importance.

Objectives: To assess the short- and long-term prognostic value of MPS and Ex-ECG in relation to known risk factors.

Methods And Materials: An observational study of 908 patients (age 63 years, 49% male, 45% prior IHD) referred for MPS and Ex-ECG. Follow-up was divided into two periods (short-term: <5 years and long-term: >5 years). Cardiac events were defined as a composite of acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, unplanned revascularization and cardiovascular death.

Results: The composite endpoint occurred in 95 patients (short-term follow up) and in 94 patients (long-term follow up). In multivariable models stress testing had a strong predictive value for short-term follow up (HR for MPS = 2.9, CI = 1.9-4.5, p < 0.001 and HR for Ex-ECG = 2.1, CI 1.3-3.3, p = 0.002), but no predictive value for long-term follow up (HR for MPS = 0.9, CI = 0.5-1.5, p = 0.70 and HR for Ex-ECG = 1.0, CI = 0.6-1.6, p = 0.92). Male sex and prior IHD were significant predictors regardless of follow up duration. Age, diabetes and decreased exercise capacity were risk factors for long-term follow up.

Conclusions: The prognostic value of MPS and Ex-ECG results are strong for short-term follow up but diminish over time and do not contribute significantly in multivariable models after 5 years. Long-term prognosis is primarily governed by underlying risk factors and exercise capacity.