Trajectory model to analyze the effect of multi-metal exposures on sperm parameters and sex hormones of the MARHCS cohort in China.

Background: At present, several cross-sectional studies have found that exposure to metal/metalloid elements is closely associated with male reproduction. However, the long-term effects of metal exposure on male reproduction have not been explored.

Methods: In 2013, 796 volunteers were recruited, followed by first and second follow-ups in 2014 and 2015. Urine, semen, and blood samples were collected at each stage to examine urinary metal/metalloid levels, sperm parameters, and sex hormones. Initially, the latent class trajectory model (LCTM) was utilized to analyze the trajectories of urinary metals. Subsequently, the effects of urinary metal trajectories on semen parameters and sex hormones were examined using the linear mixed model. Finally, the impact of urinary metal trajectories on the classification of semen quality (normal or abnormal) was evaluated using the generalized linear mixed model.

Results: Among the 18 metals/metalloids studied, trajectories were formed by 6 of them (Li, Al, Fe, Zn, As, Rb). Further analysis using the linear mixed model and the generalized linear mixed model revealed that Li was negatively correlated with semen volume, and sperm motility (P < 0.05). The maximum-decreasing trajectory group had a detrimental effect on semen quality (OR = 1.75, 95%CI: 1.22, 2.53) compared to the minimum-stable trajectory group. Al showed negative associations with sperm concentration, total sperm count, and normal morphology (P < 0.05). Rb was positively associated with progressive motility (P < 0.05). The high-stable trajectory group exhibited a protective effect on semen quality (OR = 0.66, 95%CI: 0.49, 0.90) compared to the low-stable trajectory group. Additionally, Fe was observed to have a negative relationship with follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) (P < 0.05), and Rb exhibited a negative correlation with progesterone (P) (P < 0.05).

Conclusion: Our three-year cohort study provides new evidence that Li and Al have a negative impact on semen quality, whereas Rb is associated with beneficial effects. Additionally, Rb and Fe are endocrine disruptors of sex hormones.