Development and validation of a novel vault prediction formula based on structural parameters of the anterior and posterior chambers.

Background: Accurate prediction of postoperative vault in implantable collamer lens (ICL) implantation is crucial; however, current formulas often fail to account for individual anatomical variations, leading to suboptimal visual outcomes and necessitating improved predictive models. We aimed to verify the prediction accuracy of our new predictive model for vaulting based on anterior and posterior chamber structural parameters.

Methods: This retrospective observational study included 137 patients (240 eyes) who previously underwent ICL surgery. Patients were randomly divided into the model establishment (192 eyes) or validation (48 eyes) groups. Preoperative measurements of the anterior and posterior chamber structures were obtained using Pentacam, CASIA2 anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT), ultrasound biomicroscopy, and other devices. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the vault and each variable (WL formula). The Friedman test was performed for the vaulting prediction results of the WL, NK (Ver. 3), and KS formulas (Ver. 4) in CASIA2 AS-OCT, as well as the Zhu formula and vault measurements. The proportions of prediction error within ± 250 μm per formula were compared.

Results: The predicted vault values of the WL, NK, KS, and Zhu formulas and vault measurements were 668.74 ± 162.12, 650.85 ± 248.47, 546.56 ± 128.99, 486.56 ± 210.76, and 716.06 ± 233.84 μm, respectively, with a significant difference (χ = 69.883, P = 0.000). Significant differences were also found between the measured vault value and Zhu formula, measured vault value and KS formula, WL formula and Zhu formula, WL formula and KS formula, NK formula and KS formula, and NK formula and Zhu formula (P < 0.001) but not between other groups. The proportions of prediction error within ± 250 μm per formula were as follows: WL formula (81.3%) > NK formula (70.8%) > KS formula (66.7%) > Zhu formula (54.2%).

Conclusions: The WL formula, which considers the complexity of the anterior and posterior chamber structures, demonstrates greater calculation accuracy, compared with the KS (Ver. 4) and Zhu formulas. The proportion of absolute prediction error ≤ 250 μm is higher with the WL formula than with the NK formula (ver. 3). This enhanced predictive capability can improve ICL sizing decisions, thereby increasing the safety and efficacy of ICL implantation surgeries.