Objectives: In low malaria transmission areas, the elimination of the disease has been hampered partly by the existence of a reservoir of subpatent Plasmodium falciparum infections within communities. This reservoir, often undetected, serves as a source of parasites and contributes to ongoing transmission and clinical malaria cases.
Methods: This study, spanning a period of 9 years from June 2014 to December 2022, examined individual variations and long-term subpatent P. falciparum carriage in two matched cohorts of 44 individuals each living in Dielmo village in the Sudanian area of Senegal. Biannual blood samples, collected in June/July and December of each year, underwent P. falciparum diagnosis by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. QGIS and R analytical tools were used to map infections, assess the occurrence and clustering of subpatent and clinical P. falciparum infections, and determine the risk of infection in the vicinity of asymptomatic P. falciparum carriers.
Results: The point frequency and long-term P. falciparum carriage were significantly higher among the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) positive cohort compared to the negative cohort across the 16 cross-sectional surveys analyzed in this study (19.76% vs 10.99%, P-value <0.001). Asymptomatic carriage events in qPCR-positive group were 18.86 ± 1.72% and significantly greater (P-value = 0.001) than in the qPCR-negative group (11.32 ± 1.32%). The relative risk of P. falciparum infection or clinical malaria calculated with a 95% confidence interval significantly increased in the vicinity of infected individuals and was 1.44 (P-value = 0.53) and 2.64 (P-value = 0.04) when at least one individual in the direct (household) or indirect (block of households) vicinity is infected, respectively. The risk increased to 3.64 (P-value <0.001) if at least 1/5 of individuals in the indirect vicinity were P. falciparum-infected.
Conclusions: The study provides a detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis of the asymptomatic P. falciparum reservoir and its temporal and spatial dynamics within two subgroups of P. falciparum-infected and non-infected individuals in Dielmo village. It identified high-risk populations known as "hotpops" and hotspots that could be targeted by innovative interventions to accelerate the elimination of malaria in Dielmo village.
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