Prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with rectal cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision.

Unlabelled: Prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with rectal cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision.

Background: The standard curative treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer of the middle and lower thirds is long-course chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision.

Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with local recurrence in patients with rectal cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision.

Methods: Retrospective study including patients with rectal cancer T3-4N0M0 or T (any)N + M0 located within 10 cm from the anal border, or patients with T2N0M0 located within 5 cm, treated by long course chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision with curative intent. Clinical, demographic, radiologic, surgical, and anatomopathological data were collected. Local recurrence was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier function, and risk was estimated according to each characteristic using univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results: 270 patients were included, 57.8% male and mean age 61.7 (30‒88) years. At initial staging, 6.7% of patients were stage I, 21.5% stage II, and 71.8% stage III. Open surgery was performed in 65.2%, with sphincter preservation in 78.1%. Mortality within 30 postoperative days was 0.7%. After 49.4 (0.5‒86.1) months of median follow-up, overall and local recurrences were 26.3% and 5.9%. On multivariate analyses, local recurrence was associated with involvement of the mesorectal fascia on restaging MRI (HR = 9.11, p = 0.001) and with pathologic involvement of radial surgical margin (HR = 8.19, p < 0.001).

Conclusion: Local recurrence of rectal cancer treated with long-course chemoradiation and total mesorectal excision is low and is associated with pathologic involvement of the radial surgical margin and can be predicted on restaging MRI.