Spatio-temporal characteristics and multi-scale risk identification of pollution load based on sensitivity analysis in small watersheds located in Tuojiang River Basin, China.

High-quality development of water resources supports high-quality socio-economic development. High-quality development connects high-quality life, and clarifying the key management contents of small watersheds plays an important role in building ecologically clean small watersheds and promoting regional production and life. Previous research on pollution loads has focused on examining the impact of various external drivers on pollution loads but still lacks research on the impact of changes in pollution sources themselves on pollution loads. In this study, sensitivity analysis was used to determine the impact of changes from different sources on the total pollution loads, which can recognize the critical pollution sources. We first employed the pollutant discharge coefficient method to quantify non-point source pollution loads in the small watershed in the upstream Tuojiang River basin from 2010 to 2021. Then, combination sensitivity analysis with Getis-Ord Gi* was used to identify the critical sources and their crucial areas at the global, districts (counties), and towns (streets) scales, respectively. The results indicate: (1) The pollution loads of COD, NH-N, TN, and TP all show a decreasing trend, reducing by 18.3%, 16.2%, 18.6%, and 28.1% from 2010 to 2021, respectively; (2) Livestock and poultry breeding pollution source is the most critical source for majority areas across watershed; (3) High-risk areas are mainly concentrated in Jingyang district and its subordinate towns (streets). There is a trend of low-pollution risk areas transitioning to high-pollution risk areas, with high-risk areas predominantly concentrated in the southeast and exhibiting a noticeable phenomenon of pollution load spilling around. This study can promote other similar small watersheds, holding significant importance for non-point source pollution control in small watersheds.