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Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • * A study using a system dynamics model shows that the increasing costs and reduced profits from irrigation water scarcity could limit further agricultural development by 2040.
  • * Sustainable management of the Rio Grande Basin's water resources and alternative energy solutions are essential to address the challenges posed by agricultural growth and its impact on water availability and energy demand.

Article Abstract

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11568102PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02058-9DOI Listing

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