Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting therapy complications in patients with polycythemia and deep venous thrombosis.

Background: Patients with deep venous thrombosis (DVT) residing at high altitudes can only rely on anticoagulation therapy, missing the optimal window for surgery or thrombolysis. Concurrently, under these conditions, patient outcomes can be easily complicated by high-altitude polycythemia (HAPC), which increases the difficulty of treatment and the risk of recurrent thrombosis. To prevent reaching this point, effective screening and targeted interventions are crucial. Thus, this study analyzes and provides a reference for the clinical prediction of thrombosis recurrence in patients with lower-extremity DVT combined with HAPC.

Aim: To apply the nomogram model in the evaluation of complications in patients with HAPC and DVT who underwent anticoagulation therapy.

Methods: A total of 123 patients with HAPC complicated by lower-extremity DVT were followed up for 6-12 months and divided into recurrence and non-recurrence groups according to whether they experienced recurrence of lower-extremity DVT. Clinical data and laboratory indices were compared between the groups to determine the influencing factors of thrombosis recurrence in patients with lower-extremity DVT and HAPC. This study aimed to establish and verify the value of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of thrombus recurrence.

Results: Logistic regression analysis showed that age, immobilization during follow-up, medication compliance, compliance with wearing elastic stockings, and peripheral blood D-dimer and fibrin degradation product levels were indepen-dent risk factors for thrombosis recurrence in patients with HAPC complicated by DVT. A Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test demonstrated that the nomogram model established based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis was effective in predicting the risk of thrombosis recurrence in patients with lower-extremity DVT complicated by HAPC ( = 0.873; > 0.05). The consistency index of the model was 0.802 (95%CI: 0.799-0.997), indicating its good accuracy and discrimination.

Conclusion: The column chart model for the personalized prediction of thrombotic recurrence risk has good application value in predicting thrombotic recurrence in patients with lower-limb DVT combined with HAPC after discharge.