Pretreatment pulmonary tumor necrosis is a promising prognostic imaging biomarker for first-line anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy in advanced lung squamous cell carcinoma: a multi-institutional, propensity score-matching cohort analysis.

Background: Tumor necrosis (TN) is a common feature in lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC), which could provide useful predictive and prognostic information.

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the effect of pretreatment pulmonary TN (PTN) on the prognosis of first-line anti-programmed cell death 1 (PD-1)/PD ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitor in advanced LSCC.

Design: We conducted a retrospective study to analyze the association between the presence of PTN and clinical outcomes in advanced LSCC patients treated with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors.

Methods: Data from 240 eligible patients were collected from 27 hospitals across China between 2016 and 2020. The presence of PTN was assessed using contrast-enhanced chest computed tomography (CT) imaging at baseline. We utilized the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to analyze the association between PTN and clinical outcomes. In addition, to account for potential confounding factors and ensure comparability between groups, we employed propensity score-matching (PSM) analysis.

Results: In the overall patient cohort, the presence of PTN was 39.6%. The median follow-up duration was 20.3 months. The positive PTN group exhibited a notably inferior median progression-free survival (PFS; 6.5 months vs 8.6 months,  = 0.012) compared to the negative PTN group. Within the Cox proportional-hazards regression model, PTN emerged as an independent predictor of unfavorable PFS (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.354, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.002-1.830,  = 0.049). After PSM, the median PFS for the positive PTN group (6.5 months vs 8.0 months,  = 0.027) remained worse than that of the negative PTN group. Multivariate analyses also further underscored that the presence of PTN independently posed a risk for shorter PFS (HR = 1.494, 95% CI: 1.056-2.112,  = 0.023). However, no statistically significant difference in overall survival was observed between the two groups.

Conclusion: Our study suggests that the presence of PTN on baseline contrast-enhanced chest CT is a potential negative prognostic imaging biomarker for the outcome of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitor therapy in advanced LSCC. Further studies are warranted to validate these findings and explore the underlying mechanisms.