The impact of international sanctions on food security and Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG-2).

Objectives: Food security plays a critical role in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG-2) and public health outcomes; however, its effectiveness under the impact of international sanctions remains unclear. This study examined the impact of international sanctions on achieving SDG-2 and food security.

Study Design: This cross-country empirical analysis was based on a combined database that included data from the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB), Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) and United Nations (UN) Comtrade.

Methods: First, an instrumental variable (IV) strategy was used to deal with the endogeneity of other events in target countries' sanctions. Second, a two-stage least square (2SLS) regression was conducted using high-dimensional fixed effects. Third, based on the Structural Gravity Model, a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression on bilateral agricultural trade was performed.

Results: Findings from this study showed that international sanctions had a negative impact on the achievement of SDG-2 and food security, which was associated with poor public health outcomes. This was mainly evidenced by an increase in the prevalence of undernourishment and a high population of children with moderate or severe stunting. Sanctions were also shown to distort the agricultural value-added share and decrease domestic agricultural production. In addition, sanctions impeded bilateral import supply, which resulted in a lower import value and quantity, and a higher import price.

Conclusions: Food security and agricultural sustainability associated with hunger, nutrition and health from 1950 to 2019 were significantly associated with international sanctions. Under the uncertain shock of international sanctions, progress towards SDG-2 deteriorated, mainly for Targets 2.1, 2.2 and 2.a, and the impact was non uniform across all targets. From a sociopolitical perspective, the empirical findings of this study provide vital lessons for policymakers and public health communities to increase humanitarian outreach.