Validation of Variables for Use in Pediatric Obesity Risk Score Development in Demographically and Racially Diverse United States Cohorts.

Objective: To evaluate the performance of childhood obesity prediction models in four independent cohorts in the United States, using previously validated variables obtained easily from medical records as measured in different clinical settings.

Study Design: Data from four prospective cohorts, Latinx, Eating, and Diabetes; Stress in Pregnancy Study; Project Viva; and Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas were used to test childhood obesity risk models and predict childhood obesity by ages 4 through 6, using five clinical variables (maternal age, maternal prepregnancy body mass index, birth weight Z-score, weight-for-age Z-score change, and breastfeeding), derived from a previously validated risk model and as measured in each cohort's clinical setting. Multivariable logistic regression was performed within each cohort, and performance of each model was assessed based on discrimination and predictive accuracy.

Results: The risk models performed well across all four cohorts, achieving excellent discrimination. The area under the receiver operator curve was 0.79 for Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas and Project Viva, 0.83 for Stress in Pregnancy Study, and 0.86 for Latinx, Eating, and Diabetes. At a 50th percentile threshold, the sensitivity of the models ranged from 12% to 53%, and specificity was ≥ 90%. The negative predictive values were ≥ 80% for all cohorts, and the positive predictive values ranged from 62% to 86%.

Conclusion: All four risk models performed well in each independent and demographically diverse cohort, demonstrating the utility of these five variables for identifying children at high risk for developing early childhood obesity in the United States.