Low-, moderate-, and high-risk obesity in association with cost drivers, costs over the lifecycle, and life expectancy.

Background: The prevalence of low-, moderate-, and high-risk obesity has been increasing globally. Our aim was to estimate the societal burden of these three obesity classes in the Austrian population by taking a societal-annual perspective and an individual-life-cycle perspective. Secondly, we sought to identify the respective cost drivers and the effects on life expectancy.

Methods: We used population-weighted survey data on the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and data on relative risks regarding 83 diseases. Using fractional polynomial regressions, we estimated relative risks per BMI unit for about 30 cost-intensive diseases up to BMI values of 50. The approach for the cost analysis was based on the use of population-attributable fractions applied to direct medical and indirect cost data. Macro-disease-specific data regarding cost factors came from cost-of-illness statistics and administrative sources.

Results: About 8.2% of deaths and 4.6% of health expenditure are attributable to obesity in Austria in 2019, causing 0.61% of GDP loss. A third of annual direct and indirect costs came from class 2 and class 3 obesity. From an individual perspective, life-cycle costs of class 2 and class 3 obesity were 1.9 and 3.6 times the costs of class 1 obesity, respectively. At the age of 45, people with high-risk obesity are about to lose approximately 4.9 life years and 9.7 quality-adjusted life years.

Conclusions: We have extended the method of population-attributable fractions, allowing us to estimate differences in the life-cycle direct medical and indirect costs between low-, moderate-, and high-risk obesity. We found that the lifetime costs of obesity are strikingly different between obesity classes, which has been veiled in the societal-annual perspective. Our findings provide a foundation for evaluating public health interventions aimed at combating obesity in order to mitigate the escalating individual and societal burden resulting from obesity prevalence and complications in the future.