Prospective Study of Change in Skin Autofluorescence Over Time and Mortality in People Receiving Hemodialysis.

Introduction: Elevated skin autofluorescence (SAF), a measure of tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs), is a strong predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the hemodialysis population. However, prospective studies investigating the association between changes in SAF over time and mortality are scarce. We therefore aimed to investigate the prognostic value of SAF trend for predicting mortality in a hemodialysis population.

Methods: We enrolled 120 patients on hemodialysis in a 5-year observational, prospective study. SAF was measured at baseline, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Rate of change in SAF (i.e., SAF trend) was calculated using linear regression. Time to event was the number of days from baseline to death, kidney transplantation, or March 31, 2022.

Results: Mean age, mean baseline SAF, and median SAF trend were 65 ± 14 years, 3.4 ± 0.9 arbitrary units (AU), and an increase of 0.1 (-0.1 to 0.4) AU/yr, respectively. Median observation time was 42 months, during which 59 participants (49%) died. Univariable analysis identified age, history of smoking, lower serum albumin, higher baseline SAF, and increase in SAF as significant predictors of higher mortality. In multivariable analysis, higher baseline SAF (hazard ratio: 1.45; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.94;  = 0.01) and increasing SAF trend (2.37 [1.43-3.93];  < 0.001) were independent predictors of increased mortality.

Conclusion: An increasing SAF trend and higher baseline SAF were independent predictors of all-cause mortality in this hemodialysis population, suggesting that monitoring of SAF may have clinical utility. Strategies to improve outcomes by reducing or preventing the increase in SAF should now be investigated in prospective studies.