Cardiovascular Diseases Increased among the Rural and Urban Population of the Northern Regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan during COVID-19: A Descriptive Study with Forecasting.

Background: The biggest health problem in most developed countries of the world, including Kazakhstan, is high morbidity and death rates due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), both in urban and rural areas. As is known during the outbreak of COVID-19, the inaccessibility of many medical services played a big role in the incidence of CVD, in particular in the northern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan (KZ). The objective of our research was to analyze the prevalence of CVD in city and village regions of the northern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, considering the outbreak period with forecasting.

Methods: A descriptive study with forecasting was conducted based on the "Health of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the activities of healthcare organizations", secondary statistical reporting data (collected volume) of the KZ. Information from this database was collected for five districts, two cities and one city of regional significance in the northern region of the KZ.

Results: According to our descriptive study, the incidence of CVD indicates a comparatively large prevalence of CVD among the municipal population of the northern regions of the KZ. The prevalence of CVD in urban areas of the North Kazakhstan region (NKR) was 1682.02 (2015) and 4784.08 (2020) per 100,000 population. Among rural NKR residents, it was (per 100,000 population) 170.84 (2015) and 341.98 (2020). According to the forecast, by 2025, the incidence of CVD will grow, both in urban (7382.91/100,000) and in rural areas (417.29/100,000).

Conclusions: Given the situation during the pandemic, the incidence of CVD has had a sharp increase, both in the rural and in urban areas of the northern regions of the KZ. This may be due to the poor availability of medical facilities, and medical services, which may have prevented timely diagnosis, as well as the psychology of the situation and the load on cardiac activity in relation to the pandemic.