Trapped in Violence: A Life Table Analysis of Firearm Injury and Death Among Adolescent Black Males.

Purpose: We report the chances of 14-year-old males becoming victims of firearm injury or death before age 25 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Methods: Using life table methods, we followed 4,501 Black males aged 14 years, and a comparison group of 1,751 White males, over 11 years.

Results: Among 14-year-old Black males, the risk of a nonfatal firearm injury before age 25 was 10.1% (95% confidence interval, 9.2%-11.0%), the risk of death from firearms was 2.5% (1.7%-3.2%), and the combined risk was 12.5% (11.0%-14.1%). Among White males, the risk of nonfatal firearm injury was 0.8% (0.3%-1.2%), the risk of death was 0.3% (0.02%-0.5%), and the combined risk was 1.0% (0.5%-1.5%).

Discussion: Risk estimates reveal the dire likelihood of firearm injury or death among Black adolescent males in Philadelphia. Immediate interventions are needed to de-escalate conflicts, provide supports, and address the upstream causes of violence like poverty and structural racism.