Association of physical activity trajectories over 8 years and risk of knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

Background: To identify physical activity (PA) trajectories in adults with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis and to evaluate the association of PA trajectories with incident knee replacement (KR).

Methods: This study used data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. The Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly and the KR were assessed annually from baseline to 9 years. Individuals were included if they did not undergo KR surgery at baseline and had data on PA at ≥ 1 visit before KR. Latent class growth mixture Modeling was used to identify the optimal trajectories of PA before KR. Log-binomial regression models were used to assess the association between PA trajectories and the risk of KR. Data analyses were conducted in all individuals and those with radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and significant knee pain (Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index pain score of ≥ 5 on a 0-20 scale) at baseline, respectively.

Results: Of 4731 participants (mean age 61.1 years, 58.5% female), four distinct and slightly declined PA trajectories were identified. Compared to individuals with a "Low" PA trajectory, those with "Medium-low", "Medium-high", or "High" PA trajectories were not significantly associated with the risk of KR (risk ratios: 0.97-1.19, all p > 0.05). Similar PA trajectories and associations with the risk of KR were observed in the subgroups of individuals with radiographic osteoarthritis and those with significant knee pain at baseline, respectively.

Conclusion: In participants with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis, PA slightly declines over time and may play no role in the risk of KR.