Comparative study of the risk prediction model of early postoperative frailty in elderly enterostomy patients based on machine learning methods.

Objective: Based on machine learning method, four types of early postoperative frailty risk prediction model of enterostomy patients were constructed to compare the performance of each model and provide the basis for preventing early postoperative frailty of elderly patients with enterostomy.

Methods: The prospective convenience sampling method was conducted and 362 early postoperative enterostomy patients were selected in three hospitals from July 2020 to November 2023 in Shanghai, four different prediction models of Support Vector Machine (SVM), Bayes, XG Boost, and Logistic regression were used and compared the test effects of the four models (MCC, F1, AUC, and Brier index) to judge the classification performance of the four models in the data of this study.

Results: A total of 21 variables were included in this study, and the predictors mainly covered demographic information, stoma-related information, quality of life, anxiety and depression, and frailty. The validated models on the test set are XGBoost, Logistic regression, SVM prediction model, and Bayes on the MCC and F1 scores; on the AUC, XGBoost, Logistic regression, Bayes, and SVM prediction model; on the Brier scores, Bayes, Logistic regression, and XGBoost.

Conclusion: XGBoost based on machine learning method is better than SVM prediction model, Logistic regression model and Bayes in sensitivity and accuracy. Quality of life in the early postoperative period can help guide clinical patients to identify patients at high risk of frailty and reduce the incidence of early postoperative frailty in elderly patients with enterostomy.