The Banff 2022 consensus introduced probable antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), characterized by mild AMR histologic features and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) donor-specific antibody (DSA) positivity. In a single-center observational cohort study of 1891 kidney transplant recipients transplanted between 2004 and 2021, 566 kidney biopsies were performed in 178 individual HLA-DSA-positive transplants. Evaluated at time of the first HLA-DSA-positive biopsy of each transplant (N = 178), 84 of the 178 (47.2%) of first biopsies were scored as no AMR, 22 of the 178 (12.4%) as probable AMR, and 72 of the 178 (40.4%) as AMR. The majority (77.3%) of probable AMR cases were first diagnosed in indication biopsies. Probable AMR was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (mL/min/1.73m) than no AMR (20.2 [8.3-32.3] vs 40.1 [25.4-53.3]; P = .001). The one-year risk of (repeat) AMR was similar for probable AMR and AMR (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR), 0.99; 0.42-2.31; P = .97) and higher than after no AMR (sHR, 3.05; 1.07-8.73; P = .04). Probable AMR had a higher five-year risk of transplant glomerulopathy vs no AMR (sHR, 4.29; 0.92-19.98; P = 06), similar to AMR (sHR, 1.74; 0.43-7.04; P = .44). No significant differences in five-year risk of graft failure emerged between probable AMR and AMR (sHR, 1.14; 0.36-3.58; P = .82) or no AMR (sHR, 2.46; 0.78-7.74; P = .12). Probable AMR is a rare phenotype, however, sharing significant similarities with AMR in this single-center study. Future studies are needed to validate reproducible diagnostic criteria and associated clinical outcomes to allow for defining best management of this potentially relevant phenotype.
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