A shared threat-anticipation circuit is dynamically engaged at different moments by certain and uncertain threat.

Temporal dynamics play a central role in models of emotion: is widely conceptualized as a phasic response to certain-and-imminent danger, whereas is a sustained response to uncertain-or-distal harm. Yet the underlying neurobiology remains contentious. Leveraging a translationally relevant fMRI paradigm and theory-driven modeling approach, we demonstrate that certain- and uncertain-threat anticipation recruit a shared circuit that encompasses the central extended amygdala (EAc), periaqueductal gray, midcingulate, and anterior insula. This circuit exhibits persistently elevated activation when threat is uncertain and distal, and transient bursts of activation just before certain encounters with threat. Although there is widespread agreement that the EAc plays a critical role in orchestrating responses to threat, confusion persists about the respective contributions of its major subdivisions, the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BST) and central nucleus of the amygdala (Ce). Here we used anatomical regions-of-interest to demonstrate that the BST and Ce exhibit statistically indistinguishable threat dynamics, with moderate-to-strong Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis. Both regions exhibited activation dynamics that run counter to popular models, with the Ce showing sustained responses to uncertain-and-distal threat and the BST showing phasic responses to certain-and-imminent threat. For many scientists, feelings are the hallmark of fear and anxiety. Here we used an independently validated brain 'signature' to covertly decode the moment-by-moment dynamics of anticipatory distress for the first time. Results mirrored the dynamics of neural activation. These observations provide fresh insights into the neurobiology of threat-elicited emotions and set the stage for more ambitious clinical and mechanistic research.