Projecting the economic burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany from 2010 until 2040.

Background: The aim is to estimate age- and sex-specific direct medical costs related to diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040.

Methods: Based on nationwide representative epidemiological routine data from 2010 from the statutory health insurance in Germany (almost 80% of the population's insurance) we projected age- and sex-specific healthcare expenses for type 1 and 2 diabetes considering future demographic, disease-specific and cost trends. We combine per capita healthcare cost data (obtained from aggregated claims data from an almost 7% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance) together with the demographic structure of the German population (obtained from the Federal Statictical Office), diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality. Direct per capita costs, total annual costs, cost ratios for people with versus without diabetes and attributable costs were estimated. The source code for running the analysis is publicly available in the open-access repository Zenodo.

Results: In 2010, total healthcare costs amounted to more than €1 billion for type 1 and €28 billion for type 2 diabetes. Depending on the scenario, total annual expenses were projected to rise remarkably until 2040 compared to 2010, by 1-281% for type 1 (€1 to €4 billion) and by 8-364% for type 2 diabetes (€30 to €131 billion). In a relatively probable scenario total costs amount to about €2 and €79 billion for type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2040, respectively. Depending on annual cost growth (1% p.a. as realistic scenario vs. 5% p.a. as very extreme setting), we estimated annual per capita costs of €6,581 to €12,057 for type 1 and €5,245 to €8,999 for type 2 diabetes in 2040.

Conclusions: Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on Germany which is projected to increase substantially until 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence and cost growth are main drivers of this increase. This highlight the need for urgent action to prepare for the potential development and mitigate its consequences.