Prognostic Performance of the Maximal Systolic Acceleration at the Hallux in Healing of Foot Ulcers: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: The accurate prediction of foot ulcer healing remains a major challenge in clinical practice. To date, no reliable bedside tests are available. The primary aim of this study was to determine the prognostic performance of the maximal systolic acceleration (ACC) to predict ulcer healing. Secondary objectives comprised the investigation of the prognostic accuracy in patients prone to medial arterial calcification and to assess the potential risk of amputation.

Methods: A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted. Patients aged ≥18 years who presented with a new-onset ulcer (i.e. Fontaine IV and neuropathic ulcers) on the foot and underwent an ACC measurement at the hallux were included. Ulcer healing was defined as an intact skin with epithelialization after 3 or 12 months of follow-up. Prognostic performance was calculated by using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR).

Results: In total, 136 patients with 143 wounds were included. Almost half of the patients were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (47%), and wound infection was present in 42% of cases. After 3 months of follow-up, an NPV of 97.9%, PLR of 3.25, and NLR of 0.19 were found when applying an ACC threshold of 0.5 m/s. When looking at 12 months, these numbers were 85.6%, 2.72, and 0.50, respectively. Subgroup analysis for patients with diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease showed comparable results. The risk of amputation increased significantly when a measurement below 1.0 m/s was present (odd ratio 5.3, P = 0.010).

Conclusions: ACC measurements at the hallux can have additional prognostic value in patients with foot ulcers. An ACC below 1.0 m/s is associated with nonhealing of an ulcer and a higher risk of amputation, while higher ACC values are associated with limb salvage. Therefore, ACC could be used for grading ischemia in a wound classification system.