TOTEM: a multi-cancer detection and localization approach using circulating tumor DNA methylation markers.

Background: Detection of cancer and identification of tumor origin at an early stage improve the survival and prognosis of patients. Herein, we proposed a plasma cfDNA-based approach called TOTEM to detect and trace the cancer signal origin (CSO) through methylation markers.

Methods: We performed enzymatic conversion-based targeted methylation sequencing on plasma cfDNA samples collected from a clinical cohort of 500 healthy controls and 733 cancer patients with seven types of cancer (breast, colorectum, esophagus, stomach, liver, lung, and pancreas) and randomly divided these samples into a training cohort and a testing cohort. An independent validation cohort of 143 healthy controls, 79 liver cancer patients and 100 stomach cancer patients were recruited to validate the generalizability of our approach.

Results: A total of 57 multi-cancer diagnostic markers and 873 CSO markers were selected for model development. The binary diagnostic model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.907, 0.908 and 0.868 in the training, testing and independent validation cohorts, respectively. With a training specificity of 98%, the specificities in the testing and independent validation cohorts were 100% and 98.6%, respectively. Overall sensitivity across all cancer stages was 65.5%, 67.3% and 55.9% in the training, testing and independent validation cohorts, respectively. Early-stage (I and II) sensitivity was 50.3% and 45.7% in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. For cancer patients correctly identified by the binary classifier, the top 1 and top 2 CSO accuracies were 77.7% and 86.5% in the testing cohort (n = 148) and 76.0% and 84.0% in the independent validation cohort (n = 100). Notably, performance was maintained with only 21 diagnostic and 214 CSO markers, achieving a training AUC of 0.865, a testing AUC of 0.866, and an integrated top 2 accuracy of 83.1% in the testing cohort.

Conclusions: TOTEM demonstrates promising potential for accurate multi-cancer detection and localization by profiling plasma methylation markers. The real-world clinical performance of our approach needs to be investigated in a much larger prospective cohort.