Risk factors for tuberculosis among close IGRA-negative contacts of persons with infectious tuberculosis in Singapore.

Objectives: Contacts of patients with infectious tuberculosis (TB) testing positive on interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) are followed up to exclude active disease. However, identifying factors that predispose IGRA-negative contacts to TB could improve screening and follow-up strategies in a medium TB burden country such as Singapore.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of IGRA-negative contacts aged ≥2 years identified during contact investigation between January 2014 and December 2022. We examined the risk factors associated with developing active TB among contacts previously testing IGRA-negative, using univariate and multivariable logistic regression and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals.

Results: Of 60,377 IGRA-negative contacts, 150 developed TB disease, and half were notified within 23 months of index patient diagnosis. IGRA-negative contacts of a smear-positive index patient were more likely to develop TB. Independent risk factors for TB were age >50 years, Malay ethnicity, having diabetes or end-stage renal failure, a "family" relationship with the index patient, or exposure in a dormitory or nursing home.

Conclusions: Identifying risk factors could help optimise follow-up strategies and preventive treatment in IGRA-negative individuals. The incidence rate of TB in this group was 150 per 100,000 population, substantially higher than in the community, with a median 92 weeks to develop disease. Findings suggest that follow-up should be extended to 24 months for contacts with these risk factors.