Two-year survival after scheduled extubation in patients with pneumonia or ARDS: a prospective observational study.

Purpose: To report two-year survival after scheduled extubation in patients with pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

Methods: This was a prospective observational study performed in a respiratory ICU of a teaching hospital. Pneumonia or ARDS patients who successfully completed a spontaneous breathing trial were enrolled. Data were collected before extubation. Patients were followed up to two years by phone every 3 months.

Results: A total of 230 patients were enrolled in final analysis. One-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month survival was 77.4%, 63.8%, 61.3%, 57.8%, and 47.8%, respectively. Cox regression shows that Charlson comorbidity index (hazard ratio: 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.32), APACHE II score before extubation (1.11, 1.05-1.17), cough peak flow before extubation (0.993, 0.986-0.999), and extubation failure (3.96, 2.51-6.24) were associated with two-year mortality. To predict death within two years, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic was 0.79 tested by Charlson comorbidity index, 0.75 tested by APACHE II score, and 0.75 tested by cough peak flow. Two-year survival was 31% and 77% in patients with Charlson comorbidity index ≥ 1 and < 1, 28% and 62% in patients with APACHE II score ≥ 12 and < 12, and 64% and 17% in patients with cough peak flow > 58 and ≤ 58 L/min, respectively.

Conclusions: Comorbidity, disease severity, weak cough and extubation failure were associated with increased two-year mortality in pneumonia or ARDS patients who experienced scheduled extubation. It provides objective information to caregivers to improve decision-making process during hospitalization and post discharge.