A prognostic and predictive computational pathology immune signature for ductal carcinoma in situ: retrospective results from a cohort within the UK/ANZ DCIS trial.

Background: The density of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) could be prognostic in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). However, manual TIL quantification is time-consuming and suffers from interobserver and intraobserver variability. In this study, we developed a TIL-based computational pathology biomarker and evaluated its association with the risk of recurrence and benefit of adjuvant treatment in a clinical trial cohort.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, a computational pathology pipeline was developed to generate a TIL-based biomarker (CPath TIL categories). Subsequently, the signature underwent a masked independent validation on H&E-stained whole-section images of 755 patients with DCIS from the UK/ANZ DCIS randomised controlled trial. Specifically, continuous biomarker CPath TIL score was calculated as the average TIL density in the DCIS microenvironment and dichotomised into binary biomarker CPath TIL categories (CPath TIL-high vs CPath TIL-low) using the median value as a cutoff. The primary outcome was ipsilateral breast event (IBE; either recurrence of DCIS [DCIS-IBE] or invasive progression [I-IBE]). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR).

Findings: CPath TIL-score was evaluable in 718 (95%) of 755 patients (151 IBEs). Patients with CPath TIL-high DCIS had a greater risk of IBE than those with CPath TIL-low DCIS (HR 2·10 [95% CI 1·39-3·18]; p=0·0004). The risk of I-IBE was greater in patients with CPath TIL-high DCIS than those with CPath TIL-low DCIS (3·09 [1·56-6·14]; p=0·0013), and the risk of DCIS-IBE was non-significantly higher in those with CPath TIL-high DCIS (1·61 [0·95-2·72]; p=0·077). A significant interaction (p=0·025) between CPath TIL categories and radiotherapy was observed with a greater magnitude of radiotherapy benefit in preventing IBE in CPath TIL-high DCIS (0·32 [0·19-0·54]) than CPath TIL-low DCIS (0·40 [0·20-0·81]).

Interpretation: High TIL density is associated with higher recurrence risk-particularly of invasive recurrence-and greater radiotherapy benefit in patients with DCIS. Our TIL-based computational pathology signature has a prognostic and predictive role in DCIS.

Funding: National Cancer Institute under award number U01CA269181, Cancer Research UK (C569/A12061; C569/A16891), and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, New York (NY, USA).