Incidence and survival of pediatric and adult hepatocellular carcinoma, United States, 2001-2020.

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma accounts for approximately 80 % of liver neoplasms. Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma ranks as the third most lethal cancer, with the number of deaths expected to further increase by 2040. In adults, disparities in incidence and survival are well described while pediatric epidemiology is not well characterized. We describe incidence and survival for pediatric (ages 0-19 years) hepatocellular carcinoma cases and compare these measures to adults (ages ≥ 20 years) diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods: We assessed incidence data from the US Cancer Statistics database during 2003-2020 and 5-year survival from the National Program of Cancer Registries during 2001-2019. Incidence trends were determined by annual percent change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) using joinpoint regression. Five-year survival was evaluated by relative survival, and all-cause survival was estimated using multivariate Cox modeling. Corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for all analyses.

Results: Incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 0.056 (95 %CI:0.052-0.060) for pediatric cases and 7.793 (7.767-7.819) for adults. Incidence was stable in the pediatric population (0.3 AAPC, - 1.1 to 1.7). In contrast, after periods of increase, incidence declined in adults after 2015 (-1.5 APC). Relative survival increased over time for both pediatric and adult ages and was higher for children and adolescents (46.4 %, 95 %CI:42.4-50.3) than adults (20.7 %, 95 %CI:20.5-20.9). Regression modeling showed that non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity was associated with higher risk of death in children and adolescents (1.48, 95 %CI:1.07-2.05) and adults (1.11, 95 %CI:1.09-1.12) compared to non-Hispanic white race and ethnicity.

Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2020 in the United States, pediatric incidence was stable while incidence in adults began to decline after 2015. Survival was higher across all stages for children and adolescents compared to adults. Non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity showed a higher risk of death for both age groups. Further studies could explore the factors that influence these outcome disparities.