Clinical risk factors and blood protein biomarkers of 10-year pneumonia risk.

Background: Chronic inflammation may increase susceptibility to pneumonia.

Research Question: To explore associations between clinical comorbidities, serum protein immunoassays, and long-term pneumonia risk.

Methods: Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort participants ≥65 years were linked to their Centers for Medicare Services claims data. Clinical data and 88 serum protein immunoassays were evaluated for associations with 10-year incident pneumonia risk using Fine-Gray models for competing risks of death and least absolute shrinkage and selection operators for covariate selection.

Results: We identified 1,370 participants with immunoassays and linkage to Medicare data. During 10 years of follow up, 428 (31%) participants had a pneumonia diagnosis. Chronic pulmonary disease [subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.33-2.61], current smoking (SHR 1.79, CI 1.31-2.45), heart failure (SHR 1.74, CI 1.10-2.74), atrial fibrillation/flutter (SHR 1.43, CI 1.06-1.93), diabetes (SHR 1.36, CI 1.05-1.75), hospitalization within one year (SHR 1.34, CI 1.09-1.65), and age (SHR 1.06 per year, CI 1.04-1.08) were associated with pneumonia. Three baseline serum protein measurements were associated with pneumonia risk independent of measured clinical factors: growth differentiation factor 15 (SHR 1.32; CI 1.02-1.69), C-reactive protein (SHR 1.16, CI 1.06-1.27) and matrix metallopeptidase 8 (SHR 1.14, CI 1.01-1.30). Addition of C-reactive protein to the clinical model improved prediction (Akaike information criterion 4950 from 4960; C-statistic of 0.64 from 0.62).

Conclusions: Clinical comorbidities and serum immunoassays were predictive of pneumonia risk. C-reactive protein, a routinely-available measure of inflammation, modestly improved pneumonia risk prediction over clinical factors. Our findings support the hypothesis that prior inflammation may increase the risk of pneumonia.