Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia.

Europe faces regular introductions and reintroductions of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes, most recently exemplified by the incursion of serotype 3 in the Netherlands. Although the long-distance wind dispersal of the disease vector, Culicoides spp., is recognized as a virus introduction pathway, it remains understudied in risk assessments. A Quantitative Risk Assessment framework was developed to estimate the risk of BTV-3 incursion into mainland Europe from Sardinia, where the virus has been present since 2018. We used an atmospheric transport model (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) to infer the probability of airborne dispersion of the insect vector. Epidemiological disease parameters quantified the virus prevalence in vector population in Sardinia and its potential first transmission after introduction in a new area. When assuming a 24h maximal flight duration, the risk of BTV introduction from Sardinia is limited to the Mediterranean Basin, mainly affecting the southwestern area of the Italian Peninsula, Sicily, Malta, and Corsica. The risk extends to the northern and central parts of Italy, Balearic archipelago, and mainland France and Spain, mostly when maximal flight duration is longer than 24h. Additional knowledge on vector flight conditions and Obsoletus complex-specific parameters could improve the robustness of the model. Providing both spatial and temporal insights into BTV introduction risks, our framework is a key tool to guide global surveillance and preparedness against epizootics.