Risk of transformation by frontline management in follicular and marginal zone lymphomas: a US population-based analysis.

Follicular lymphoma (FL) and marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) often have long overall survival (OS), however, high-grade transformation (HGT) to diffuse large B-cell lymphoma markedly reduces survival. The roles of upfront treatment vs observation on the incidence and outcome of HGT remain unclear. Thus, we analyzed a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to address this question. Patients diagnosed with FL grades 1 to 2 or MZL between 2000 and 2020 were included. Fine-Gray models estimated the impact of covariates on HGT cumulative incidence and lymphoma-specific survival (LSS) and Cox regression on OS. HGT occurred in 4.2% of 23 384 patients with FL and 2.5% of 20 530 patients with MZL. The 5- and 10-year HGT cumulative incidence rates were 2.80% and 4.87% for FL, and 1.74% and 2.95% for MZL, respectively, which are notably lower than in earlier studies. The annual HGT incidence rate peaked in the first 2 years, then steadily declined over 2 decades for FL and all MZL subtypes. In FL, upfront observation vs treatment increases HGT risk (sub-distribution hazard ratio [SHR], 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.40; P < .001) and barely affects OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99; P = .03). Conversely, upfront observation was associated with lower HGT risk in nodal (SHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53-0.94; P = .01) and extranodal (SHR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.86; P = .003) MZL and did not affect survival in extranodal disease (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.97-1.02; P = .15). HGT was associated with decrease in LSS across all histologies. Upfront treatment reduced the risk of HGT only in FL but not MZL.