Recalled through this day but forgotten next week?-retrieval activity predicts durability of partly consolidated memories.

Even partly consolidated memories can be forgotten given sufficient time, but the brain activity associated with durability of episodic memory at different time scales remains unclear. Here, we aimed to identify brain activity associated with retrieval of partly consolidated episodic memories that continued to be remembered in the future. Forty-nine younger (20 to 38 years; 25 females) and 43 older adults (60 to 80 years, 25 females) were scanned with functional magnetic resonance imaging during associative memory retrieval 12 h post-encoding. Twelve hours is sufficient to allow short-term synaptic consolidation as well as early post-encoding replay to initiate memory consolidation. Successful memory trials were classified into durable and transient source memories based on responses from a memory test ~6 d post-encoding. Results demonstrated that successful retrieval of future durable vs. transient memories was supported by increased activity in a medial prefrontal and ventral parietal area. Individual differences in activation as well as the subjective vividness of memories during encoding were positively related to individual differences in memory performance after 6 d. The results point to a unique and novel aspect of brain activity supporting long-term memory, in that activity during retrieval of memories even after 12 h of consolidation contains information about potential for long-term durability.