A longitudinal study of the probability of developing malocclusion in children using a Bayesian analysis.

Introduction: This study evaluated the probability of developing malocclusions in mixed dentition.

Methods: A longitudinal study was conducted with 598 children (aged 5 years) in deciduous dentition. The children were followed for 3 years until mixed dentition (aged 8 years). Overjet, overbite, and transversal relations were evaluated. Bayesian models were used to analyze the data and estimate the parameters.

Results: The parameter θ was used for the distributions, indicating the probability of presenting a given condition with a credibility index (ICr) of 95%. After 3 years of follow-up, 121 children were reevaluated. The results showed that children have a high probability of malocclusion in mixed dentition. There was a higher probability of developing an increased overjet in the mixed dentition of 20.5% (ICr 95%, 13.6-28.4) to 48.3% (ICr 95%, 39.1-57.7) and a higher probability of having a normal overbite in the deciduous dentition and a lower probability in the mixed dentition (ICr 95%, 9.2-21.3).

Conclusions: Considering the probabilistic model of Bayesian analysis, children with normal overjet in the deciduous dentition may show an increased overjet in the mixed dentition. Concerning overbite, children may present an anterior open bite during the transition between deciduous and mixed dentition, as well as self-correction of deep overbite in mixed dentition. Furthermore, they may present a posterior crossbite during the mixed dentition when there is a normal transverse relationship in the deciduous dentition.