Quantifying the abundance and survival rates of island-associated spinner dolphins using a multi-state open robust design model.

Spinner dolphins (Stenella longirostris subsp.) occupy the nearshore waters of several Hawaiian Islands. Due to their constrained behavioral pattern and genetic isolation, they are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. Their occurrence and behavior are well-described, yet a lack of data on their abundance and survival rates hinders optimal conservation action. Using design-based photo-identification surveys, this study estimated the abundance, apparent survival, and emigration of spinner dolphins off the Wai'anae Coast of O'ahu through multi-state open robust design (MSORD) and POPAN modelling. Eight seasonal field seasons, (two winter, spring, summer, and autumn) each comprised of six surveys of the study area, were completed during two consecutive years. Seasonal abundance estimates derived from the best fitting model ranged from 140 (± 36.8 SE, 95% CI 84-232) to 373 (± 60.0, 95% CI 273-509) individuals and were lowest during winter seasons. The MSORD estimated a survival rate of 0.95 (± 0.02 SE) and a Markovian pattern of temporary emigration. POPAN modelling estimated a super-population size of 633 (± 78 SE, 95% CI 492-798), reflecting the total number of individual dolphins that used the study area during the entire study period. Additional research on circum- and inter-island dolphin movements around and between O'ahu and the Maui Nui region may shed light on both seasonal movement patterns and overall abundance for the O'ahu/4-Islands stock. This work represents the first systematic mark-recapture effort to assess the abundance and survival rates of these highly exposed dolphins, providing valuable insights for conservation and management.