How does virtual water influence the water stress pattern in Africa? A research perspective from the perspectives of production and trade.

Northern Africa has become the first region in the world to exhaust its water resources, with a 40 % decrease in per capita water availability south of the Sahara over the past decade. While adjusting production structures and consumption can regulate the supply-demand dynamics of water resources, the extent of the impact of virtual water-induced pressure on both the regional and national levels in Africa remains largely understudied. Applying the standard Penman formula, this research calculates the water footprint of eight cereal crops in 54 African countries from 1990 to 2021. By integrating corresponding data on cereal trade, the study analyzes changes in virtual water stress. The findings indicate a decline in the per-unit production and consumption water footprints for African cereals. However, the continuous expansion of cultivation areas contributes to a rising water stress. In comparison to 1990, the water stress for soybeans, sorghum, rice, maize, and cassava increased by 149.72 %, 146.88 %, 133.89 %, 123.30 %, and 90.8 %, respectively, in 2021. Only barley showed a reduction in water stress by 23.22 %. The study underscores the growing interconnectedness of virtual water trade (VWT) among African nations from 1990 to 2021, leading to a more balanced trade distribution. VWT has reduced water stress by 7.65 %, 2.08 %, and 1.8 % in Western, Central, and Northern Africa, respectively, while increasing pressure in Southern and Eastern Africa by 10.51 % and 1.01 %. The flow of virtual water in Africa is most influenced by spatial proximity, primarily occurring between adjacent countries or regions. Forecasts for water stress under the five scenarios of SSPs-RCP8.5 have been conducted, revealing a continuous increase in water stress across Africa. Furthermore, analysis of the SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario indicates that by 2030 and 2040, African cereal crops are projected to face virtual water resource stress increases of 7 % and 18.76 %, respectively, compared to 2020 levels. During the same period, Sierra Leone is anticipated to experience a growth rate in virtual water stress of approximately 1903.38 %. Consequently, altering crop cultivation structures and enhancing VWT are poised to alleviate water resource pressure, promoting the scientific management of agricultural water resources in Africa.