Interpretable machine learning identifies metabolites associated with glomerular filtration rate in type 2 diabetes patients.

Objective: The co-occurrence of kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major public health challenge. Although early detection and intervention can prevent or slow down the progression, the commonly used estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine may be influenced by factors unrelated to kidney function. Therefore, there is a need to identify novel biomarkers that can more accurately assess renal function in T2D patients. In this study, we employed an interpretable machine-learning framework to identify plasma metabolomic features associated with GFR in T2D patients.

Methods: We retrieved 1626 patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Liaoning Medical University First Affiliated Hospital (LMUFAH) as a development cohort and 716 T2D patients in Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University (SAHDMU) as an external validation cohort. The metabolite features were screened by the orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA). We compared machine learning prediction methods, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to explain the optimal model.

Results: For T2D patients, compared with the normal or elevated eGFR group, glutarylcarnitine (C5DC) and decanoylcarnitine (C10) were significantly elevated in GFR mild reduction group, and citrulline and 9 acylcarnitines were also elevated significantly (FDR<0.05, FC > 1.2 and VIP > 1) in moderate or severe reduction group. The XGBoost model with metabolites had the best performance: in the internal validate dataset (AUROC=0.90, AUPRC=0.65, BS=0.064) and external validate cohort (AUROC=0.970, AUPRC=0.857, BS=0.046). Through the SHAP method, we found that C5DC higher than 0.1μmol/L, Cit higher than 26 μmol/L, triglyceride higher than 2 mmol/L, age greater than 65 years old, and duration of T2D more than 10 years were associated with reduced GFR.

Conclusion: Elevated plasma levels of citrulline and a panel of acylcarnitines were associated with reduced GFR in T2D patients, independent of other conventional risk factors.