Changing epidemic of tuberculosis amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western Pacific Region: analysis of tuberculosis case notifications and treatment outcomes from 2015 to 2022.

Background: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has deeply impacted tuberculosis (TB) services globally. This study aims to assess the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on TB diagnosis and care and explore associated factors in the Western Pacific Region.

Methods: We analysed TB case notifications and treatment outcomes for the Region and 14 selected countries and areas from 2015 to 2022. We further explored differences in reported cases from predicted cases by the UHC service coverage index and Human Development Index (HDI), and the relationship between the Stringency Index and TB case notifications during the pandemic.

Findings: TB case notifications declined in 2020 (21%) and 2021 (23%) compared to predicted cases and partly recovered in 2022 (18%). The shortfalls in 2020 and 2021 were more prominent in priority countries with high TB burden, where the decrease in clinically diagnosed pulmonary cases and paediatric cases was particularly pronounced. In priority countries, TB case notifications have a positive relationship with UHC service coverage index and HDI in 2021 and an inverse relationship with Stringency Index during the pandemic. In contrast, treatment outcomes have not changed significantly due to the pandemic across countries in the Region.

Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted TB diagnosis and care in the Western Pacific Region, especially TB case detection. Stringent government policies against the pandemic, coupled with weak health systems and suboptimal socio-economic development, may have brought a more profound and prolonged impact in priority countries.

Funding: The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.