Long-term cardiovascular outcomes in a population-based multicentric cohort of northern Portugal: Validation of the ESC/EAS prognostic risk classification.

Background: Cardiovascular (CV) risk scores identify individuals at higher long-term risk of CV events that may benefit from more aggressive preventive interventions.

Objective: To assess the association of CV-risk categories and criteria with long-term CV events.

Methods: Observational cohort study between 2000-2019 on patients aged 40-80 years, followed by 14 primary care centers assisted by 1 hospital in Portugal. Follow-up began when electronic health records data allowed for CV-risk classification and dynamic reassessment per 2019 ESC/EAS Guidelines. Inclusion criteria required at least one appointment with a primary care physician within three years before follow-up initiation. We assessed the 10-year adjusted hazard-ratio of combined CV death and non-fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) hospitalization, across SCORE risk categories and criteria, using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for sex, age, competing comorbidities, and medication.

Results: The study included 161 681 observations from 87 035 unique patients. During the observation period, 71 787 patients were classified as low/moderate, 51 476 as high and 38 418 as very-high CV-risk categories. In the very-high group, prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (69%), hypercholesterolemia (69%) and type 2 diabetes (61%), and 13% were hospitalized for ASCVD. The adjusted 10-year hazard ratio of the composite of CV death or ASCVD hospitalization was 2.10 (95% CI: 1.91-2.32) for high-risk and 3.56 (95% CI: 3.21-3.96) for very-high-risk patients (low-risk as reference).

Conclusion: Our study reinforces the prognostic relevance of CV-risk stratification for long-term prediction of CV death and ASCVD hospitalization in an unselected cohort, independently of sex, age, competing comorbidities and medication.