Prognostic significance of postoperative serological incomplete conversion of AFP and PIVKA-II after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter analysis of 1755 patients.

Background: The value of serum biomarkers, particularly alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), gains increasing attention in prognostic evaluation and recurrence monitoring for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigated the implications of serological incomplete conversion (SIC) of these 2 biomarkers as prognostic indicators for long-term outcomes after HCC resection.

Methods: A multicenter observational study was conducted on a cohort of HCC patients presenting with AFP (>20 ng/mL) or PIVKA-II (>40 mAU/mL) positivity who underwent curative-intent resection. Based on their postoperative AFP and PIVKA-II levels at first postoperative follow-up (4~8 weeks after surgery), these patients were stratified into the serological incomplete conversion (SIC) and serological complete conversion (SCC) groups. The study endpoints were recurrence and overall survival (OS).

Results: Among 1755 patients, 379 and 1376 were categorized as having SIC and SCC, respectively. The SIC group exhibited 1- and 5-year OS rates of 67.5% and 26.3%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 53.2% and 79.0%, respectively; while the SCC group displayed 1- and 5-year OS rates of 95.8% and 62.5%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 16.8% and 48.8%, respectively (both P < .001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that postoperative SIC was an independent risk factor for both increased recurrence (HR: 2.40, 95% CI, 2.04-2.81, P < .001) and decreased OS (HR: 2.69, 95% CI, 2.24-3.24, P < .001).

Conclusion: The results emphasize that postoperative incomplete conversion of either AFP or PIVKA-II is a significant prognostic marker, indicating a higher risk for adverse oncologic outcomes following HCC resection. This revelation has crucial implications for refining postoperative adjuvant therapy and surveillance strategies for HCC patients.