Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability and Natural Product Accumulation of the Medicinal Plant L. Based on the MaxEnt Model.

L., a perennial herb in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China, has the ecological functions of windbreaking and sand fixation and high medicinal value. In recent years, global warming and human activities have led to changes in suitable habitats for , which may affect the accumulation of natural products. In this study, MaxEnt 3.4 and ArcGIS 10.4 software were used to predict the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for in China under climate change. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of as affected by human activities, the differences in the content of natural products of between different suitable habitats, and the correlation between natural products and environmental factors were analyzed. The results showed that suitable habitats for were projected to expand in the future, and the major environmental factors were temperature (Bio1), rainfall (Bio18), and soil pH (pH). When Bio1, Bio18, and pH were 8.4283 °C, 7.1968 mm, and 9.9331, respectively, the distribution probability () of was the highest. After adding a human activity factor, the accuracy of the model prediction results was improved, and the area of suitable habitats was greatly reduced, showing a fragmented pattern. Meanwhile, habitat suitability had a specific effect on the content of natural products in . Specifically, the content of natural products in in wild habitats was higher than that in artificial cultivation, and highly suitable habitats showed higher contents than those in non-highly suitable habitats. The contents of total alkaloids and total flavonoids were positively correlated with human activities and negatively correlated with land use types. Among them, total alkaloids were negatively correlated with aspect, and total flavonoids were positively correlated with aspect. In addition, it is suggested that Xinjiang should be the priority planting area for in China, and priority should be given to protection measures in the Alashan area. Overall, this study provides an important foundation for the determination of priority planting areas and resource protection for .