Novel prognostic nomograms for postoperative patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma in the central region of China.

Background: Oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) is the most common pathological type in oral tumors. This study intends to construct a novel prognostic nomogram model based on China populations for these resectable OCSCC patients, and then validate these nomograms.

Methods: A total of 607 postoperative patients with OCSCC diagnosed between June 2012 and June 2018 were obtained from two tertiary medical institutions in Xinxiang and Zhengzhou. Then, 70% of all the cases were randomly assigned to the training group and the rest to the validation group. The endpoint time was defined as overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The nomograms for predicting the 3-, and 5-year OS and DFS in postoperative OCSCC patients were established based on the independent prognostic factors, which were identified by the univariate analysis and multivariate analysis. A series of indexes were utilized to assess the performance and net benefit of these two newly constructed nomograms. Finally, the discrimination capability of OS and DFS was compared between the new risk stratification and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage by Kaplan-Meier curves.

Results: 607 postoperative patients with OCSCC were selected and randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 425) and validation cohort (n = 182). The nomograms for predicting OS and DFS in postoperative OCSCC patients had been established based on the independent prognostic factors. Moreover, dynamic nomograms were also established for more convenient clinical application. The C-index for predicting OS and DFS were 0.691, 0.674 in the training group, and 0.722, 0.680 in the validation group, respectively. Besides, the calibration curve displayed good consistency between the predicted survival probability and actual observations. Finally, the excellent performance of these two nomograms was verified by the NRI, IDI, and DCA curves in comparison to the AJCC stage system.

Conclusion: The newly established and validated nomograms for predicting OS and DFS in postoperative patients with OCSCC perform well, which can be helpful for clinicians and contribute to clinical decision-making.