Body mass index stratification enables cytokine-based prediction of ACPA status and Power-Doppler disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis.

Objective: Rheumatoid arthritis can be classified according to ACPA and RF status. ACPA status may be associated with other pathophysiological differences, e.g., the cytokines driving inflammation. Obesity influences the course of RA, likely involving leptin; the exact mechanisms are not completely understood. This study investigates BMI influence on RA cytokine profiles and the possibility of predicting ACPA status and disease activity measured by Power-Doppler sonography (PDS).

Methods: Patients were examined using a multi-biomarker disease assay and PDS examination of wrists and MCP and PIP joints and stratified according to ACPA status and BMI, using prediction precision to determine BMI cutoff. Analysis was performed using elastic net regularization of logistic and multiple regression. We then attempted to predict ACPA status/PDS activity based on a bootstrap approach.

Results: A total of 120 measurements from 95 patients were performed. ACPA status prediction peaked at BMI 26 kg/m, with AUC 0.82. PDS activity prediction had a mean average error of < 1.6 PDS points for all groups. In obese patients, cytokine profiles appear to align in ACPA-positive and -negative patients, with leptin playing a greater role in predicting PDS activity, but with some remaining differences.

Conclusion: When stratified according to BMI, cytokine patterns can predict ACPA status and PDS activity in RA with a high degree of precision. This indicates that studies into the pathophysiology of RA should take BMI into account, to differentiate between disease- and obesity-associated phenomena. The underlying pathological processes of ACPA-negative and -positive RA appear different. Multi-cytokine evaluations may provide a deeper understanding of disease processes. Key Points • A multi-cytokine approach combined with ultrasonography and modern mathematical methods can contribute to a deeper understanding of the relationship between systemic and joint inflammation. • BMI influences cytokine profiles in rheumatoid arthritis and appears to "override" disease-specific processes. • Using cytokines only, and adjusting for BMI, it is possible to predict the ACPA status and joint inflammation with considerable precision.