Association of leukocyte telomere length with risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged and older individuals without cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study of NHANES 1999-2002.

Background: Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) shorting was significantly associated with mortality. This study aimed to investigate the potential association between LTL and all-cause mortality as well as cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in middle-aged or older individuals without a history of CVD.

Methods: A total of 4174 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted between 1999 and 2002 were included in this analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were utilized to estimate the association between LTL and mortality outcomes. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) curves were employed to evaluate the potential non-linear association.

Results: Over a median follow-up period of 217 months, the weighted rates of all-cause mortality and CVD mortality were 28.58% and 8.32% respectively. Participants in the highest LTL group exhibited a significantly decreased risk of both all-cause mortality (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.54-0.78, P < 0.001) and CVD mortality (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45-0.93, P < 0.001) compared to those in the lowest group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves further supported a significant association between shorter telomere length and increased risks of both all-cause and CVD mortality (log-rank test P < 0.001). RCS curves demonstrated a linear dose-response relationship between LTL and all-cause mortality as well as CVD mortality. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results.

Conclusion: Shorter leukocyte telomere length could serve as a potential biomarker for risk stratification of all-cause and CVD mortality among middle-aged and older individuals without a history of CVD.