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Interpretation of COVID-19 Epidemiological Trends in Mexico Through Wastewater Surveillance Using Simple Machine Learning Algorithms for Rapid Decision-Making.
Viruses
January 2025
School of Engineering and Sciences, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Monterrey 64849, Mexico.
Detection and quantification of disease-related biomarkers in wastewater samples, denominated Wastewater-based Surveillance (WBS), has proven a valuable strategy for studying the prevalence of infectious diseases within populations in a time- and resource-efficient manner, as wastewater samples are representative of all cases within the catchment area, whether they are clinically reported or not. However, analysis and interpretation of WBS datasets for decision-making during public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, remains an area of opportunity. In this article, a database obtained from wastewater sampling at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and university campuses in Monterrey and Mexico City between 2021 and 2022 was used to train simple clustering- and regression-based risk assessment models to allow for informed prevention and control measures in high-affluence facilities, even if working with low-dimensionality datasets and a limited number of observations.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPopulation-Level SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR Cycle Threshold Values and Their Relationships with COVID-19 Transmission and Outcome Metrics: A Time Series Analysis Across Pandemic Years.
Viruses
January 2025
Antiguo Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, "Fray Antonio Alcalde", Guadalajara 44280, Mexico.
This study investigates the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values and key COVID-19 transmission and outcome metrics across five years of the pandemic in Jalisco, Mexico. Utilizing a comprehensive time-series analysis, we evaluated weekly median Ct values as proxies for viral load and their temporal associations with positivity rates, reproduction numbers (Rt), hospitalizations, and mortality. Cross-correlation and lagged regression analyses revealed significant lead-lag relationships, with declining Ct values consistently preceding surges in positivity rates and hospitalizations, particularly during the early phases of the pandemic.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEarly COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness: Informing Public Health Interventions and Hospital Capacity Planning Through Participatory Hybrid Simulation Modeling.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
December 2024
Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C9, Canada.
We engaged with health sector stakeholders and public health professionals within the health system through a participatory modeling approach to support policy-making in the early COVID-19 pandemic in Saskatchewan, Canada. The objective was to use simulation modeling to guide the implementation of public health measures and short-term hospital capacity planning to mitigate the disease burden from March to June 2020. We developed a hybrid simulation model combining System Dynamics (SD), discrete-event simulation (DES), and agent-based modeling (ABM).
View Article and Find Full Text PDFOrganizational resilience in emergency healthcare: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic in five Danish hospitals.
Soc Sci Med
January 2025
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, Box 90120, Durham, NC, 27708-0120, United States. Electronic address:
The COVID-19 pandemic created significant challenges for healthcare professionals and the provision of hospital care, leading to immense stress and rapidly changing conditions. Hospitals had to constantly adapt their organizational structures and strategies to manage the crisis. This study examines the organizational responses of Danish emergency hospitals during the first COVID-19 surge, focusing on resilience in anticipation, coping, and learning.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAcrocyanosis: The Least Known Acrosyndrome Revisited With a Dermatologic Perspective.
Dermatol Res Pract
January 2025
Department of Dermatology, Acıbadem University School of Medicine, İstanbul, Turkey.
Acrocyanosis is a functional peripheral vascular disorder, currently categorized under the canopy of acrosyndromes, i.e., a group of clinically similar and significantly overlapping vascular disorders involving the acral skin.
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