Association between metabolic score for insulin resistance and clinical outcomes: insights from the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

Background: We aimed to assess the relationship between Metabolic Score for Insulin Resistance (METS-IR) and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a population from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Method: Individuals aged ≥ 20 years were enrolled. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to assess the association between METS-IR and incident CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and CKD.

Results: Over a median follow-up period of 9-18 years, 1080 (10.6%), 267 (2.6%), 1022 (9.6%), 1382 (16.4%), 2994 (58.5%), and 2002 (23.0%) CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and CKD events occurred, respectively. Compared to the lowest quartile (reference), the hazard ratios (HR) associated with the highest quartile of METS-IR were 1.527 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.208-1.930, P for trend 0.001), 1.393 (0.865-2.243, > 0.05), 0.841 (0.682-1.038, > 0.05), 3.277 (2.645-4.060, < 0.001), 1.969 (1.752-2.214, < 0.001), and 1.020 (0.874-1.191, > 0.05) for CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and CKD, respectively. METS-IR, as a continuous variable, was significantly associated with the risk of incident CHD [HR, 95% CI: 1.106, 1.034-1.184], diabetes [1.524, 1.438-1.616], and hypertension [1.321, 1.265-1.380]. These associations were also independent of metabolic syndrome (METS) and remained unchanged in a subgroup of individuals without METS and/or diabetes.

Conclusions: Increasing levels of METS-IR were significantly associated with a greater risk of incident CHD, diabetes, and hypertension; therefore, this index can be a useful tool for capturing the risk of these clinical outcomes.