What are the Data for Current Prognostic Tools Used to Determine the Risk of Short-Term Adverse Events in Patients with Acute Heart Failure?

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) is a common condition evaluated in the emergency department (ED). Patients may present with a wide range of signs and symptoms, comorbidities, exacerbating factors, and ability to follow-up. Having a decision tool to objectively assess the risk of near-term events would help guide disposition decisions in these patients.

Clinical Question: What are the data for current tools used to determine the short-term risk of adverse events of patients with AHF in the ED setting?

Evidence Review: Studies retrieved included six prospective studies and three retrospective cohort studies that evaluated the following five different risk scores that may predict the risk of serious adverse events in those with AHF: Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Score (OHFRS), Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG), EHMRG at 30 days with addition of an ST depression variable (EHMRG30-ST), Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on the Emergency Department Spanish 40 Score in Patients with AHF Score (MEESSI-AHF), and the Improving Heart Failure Risk Stratification in the ED (STRATIFY) tool.

Conclusions: Based on the available literature, risk scores, including the OHFRS; EHMRG; EHMRG30-ST; MEESSI-AHF; and STRATIFY, can help identify short-term risk of adverse events, but are insufficient in isolation. Clinicians should use these tools in conjunction with other factors, such as the patient's symptom trajectory, hemodynamics, and access to follow-up care.